So Are These Job Numbers Real or Just a - DREAMers?

A lot of people were surprised and skeptical to see the unemployment rate tick down so sharply to 7.8%.  Prior to the jobs report, economists were predicting that the jobs creation number would be 113,000 and that the unemployment rate would tick up from 8.1% to 8.2%.  The number of jobs created was spot on at 114,000 - so it was very surprising to see the rate off by almost 0.5% from expectations.  The difference came from over 500,000 people getting part-time work outta nowhere.  Maybe people really are getting out there and getting jobs that are available instead of just waiting for jobs they want.  That's great news.  It just comes at an awfully convenient time.

Many of us wearing tin foil hats have been expecting the unemployment rate to artificially come down to under 8.0% just in time for the election.  I've been banking on that happening as a result of Obama's executive order eliminating the job search requirement for welfare recipients, which takes them off of the unemployment roles.  The August jobs report fit that theory very nicely.  That's when only 96,000 jobs were created, but the unemployment rate went down from 8.2 to 8.1% because 368,000 "left the workforce" (some of them going on to SSDI and other long-term welfare programs).  This month's report did not follow that pattern, though.  The labor force reportedly went up by 418,000 this time.  So what gives?

I have one more nefarious theory, but it's admittedly on shakier ground than the last one.  It has to do with Obama's mini Dream Act in the form of an executive order in mid June.  That gave about a million young illegal immigrants the right to work in the country legally and it was said at the time that it would take about 60 days for the executive order to be implemented.  Could that have something to do with this surprise drop in the unemployment rate one month ahead of the election?  Imagine trimming the unemployment roles with the welfare requirement elimination and then stacking the employment numbers with part-time working DREAMers.  You wouldn't have to count the unemployed DREAMers since they haven't been looking.  But even I must admit, this would be pretty over the top if true.  I checked the number of Hispanics in the jobs report and didn't notice a spike...  Maybe the government's reporting them as white Hispanics like they did in the Trayvon Martin case.  Ha.

Whether you're skeptical of the jobs numbers or not, you have to admit that nothing about the current economic environment really explains the biggest jump in the number of employed people in 29 years.  So hiring is on a tear despite the exploding gas prices and the looming financial cliff?  Hmm.  Such a historic jump in employment would be expected to trigger a very good day on Wall Street, no?  They must be a little skeptical, too, because the Dow only went up 35 points (0.26%) and the Nasdaq and S&P were actually down on the day.  It seems like the only thing about the economy getting better is a jobs report number that is key to the President's chances of reelection.

So assuming that this report is an indication of the economy improving, let's hope things pick up steam.  However, no matter how you spin them, the fundamentals behind these jobs numbers remain about as bad as Obama's debate performance and no one's excited with the pace the economy is growing.  Romney is going to stay on the attack with these numbers and win the argument.  The unemployment rate would be closer to 11% if it weren't for so many people that have left the workforce - by design or not.  That's taking the number of employed people now and assuming the same participation rate of the population in the workforce as when Obama took office.  We have to make up that ground, too, to get the GDP back on track and that's a problem that's not going to get fixed by four more years of throwing more food stamps and Obama Phones at it or turning our money into Monopoly money by cranking up the printing presses.

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